Preview: UFC Atlanta ‘Usman vs. Buckley’

Women's Flyweights
Rose Namajunas (13-7) vs. Miranda Maverick (15-5)

Odds: Namajunas (-258), Maverick (+210)

Namajunas's move up to flyweight hasn't been a failure, but it's been surprising how uninteresting things have been for the two-time strawweight champion given the previous ups and downs of her career. Namajunas was clearly one of the most compelling personalities on the season of “The Ultimate Fighter” that helped launch the strawweight division, and she had all the upside in the world as a talented prospect with a ton of dynamism. It wasn't a shock when Carla Esparza blew open the holes in Namajunas's game in the UFC's first-ever strawweight title fight, and that gave way to a three-year path to the title where Namajunas wore her mental struggles on her sleeve, both openly coaching herself up at points and struggling to overcome some moments of adversity, most notably in a 2016 loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz. When Namajunas earned a title shot at Joanna Jedrzejczyk a year and change after the Kowalkiewicz loss, those struggles became part of the narrative as Jedrzejczyk - at that point a dominant champion - predicted that Namajunas would wind up crumbling; but that just wound up making Namajunas's title win, a knockout in just a shade over three minutes, even more cathartic. Namajunas then proved her mental fortitude in an immediate rematch against Jedrzejczyk that went into much deeper waters, but she wound up losing her title in brutal fashion in her next fight; she looked absolutely electric for a round against Jessica Andrade, only for Andrade to pick her up in a clinch and knock Namajunas out by slamming her directly on her head. The finish was emphatic enough that there were worries that Namajunas might subsequently retire, but instead she was champion within two years, beating Andrade in a rematch before quickly knocking out Zhang Weili to win back the belt. After a successful title defense against Zhang in a rematch, conventional wisdom was that Namajunas would run through her next challenger, a suddenly resurgent Esparza who wound up taking the long road back to a title shot. But what ensued was one of the most baffling performances in mixed martial arts history, as Namajunas -- apparently reliving the fight where Esparza had out-wrestled her a decade prior -- just stayed defensive and didn't do much of anything against her much smaller opponent, losing a decision where Esparza did little but Namajunas did even less. That led to more talks of retirement, only for Namajunas to move up to flyweight against Manon Fiorot a year and a half later. Namajunas's campaign at 125 pounds has been fine, but surprisingly unremarkable; a flat performance against Fiorot was explained away by a major hand injury suffered early in the fight, then Namajunas was able to rebound with wins over Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez that were clear but never particularly dominant. And Namajunas's last bout against Erin Blanchfield only added to the aimless feeling around her flyweight fights; she looked sharp for two rounds, but then drifted out of the fight and allowed Blanchfield to pressure her way to a decision victory.

Flyweight just might not be Namajunas's natural division, but she'd still be a big win for her opponent here in Maverick, who's seemingly been on the verge of a breakthrough since debuting with the UFC in 2020. Maverick came to the UFC as a 23-year old powerhouse wrestler, but she impressed on the feet against Liana Jojua in that UFC debut, looking sharp before winning via cut stoppage after the first round. But come 2021, Maverick got a clear wakeup call as she was unable to out-muscle the flyweight division's other top young prospects in Blanchfield and Maycee Barber, and she has yet to entirely put things together despite winning six of her last seven fights. Maverick still looks to be a capable wrestler and she's improving on the feet, but those two phases of her game feel disconnected, particularly as she still has yet to entirely figure out when to pivot to which skills; the end result is that she often feels more noncommittal to her best weapons than she should be, something driven home by a 2023 loss to the much more aggressive and focused Jasmine Jasudavicius. But even with her flaws, Maverick still keeps winning, and from her standpoint 2024 seems like it was a clear exercise in frustration, with multiple big opportunities -- most notably against Cortez when she was pulled to fight Namajunas -- falling through. That wound up with Maverick handily beating some late replacements, though, again, those were mostly performances where Maverick should've looked a lot more dominant on paper. At any rate, there's a clear path to victory for both fighters here, provided either comes into the fight fully locked in -- which, at this point, is an open question. Namajunas at her peak should be able to shred Maverick's still-developing striking, while Maverick's physical strength should hand her the win if she decides to embrace the grind. Given that this is only three rounds, which makes Namajunas less likely to drift out of the fight like she did in the five-rounder against Blanchfield, the former strawweight champ gets the nod here as the fighter likelier to show up in peak form - but there are the clear caveats that neither fighter is particularly dependable at this point and Maverick is the one with more potential for a breakout performance. The pick is Namajunas via decision.

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Usman vs. Buckley
Namajunas vs. Maverick
Shahbazyan vs. Petroski
Garbrandt vs. Barcelos
Abdul-Malik vs. Brundage
Menifield vs. Sy
The Prelims