Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 107 ‘Blanchfield vs. Barber’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is putting on a fight card some are lauding as the worst in recent memory, with a pair of significant matchups on top and a slew of Dana White’s Contender Series fodder filling the ranks. Even with the numerous card changes that continue even through fight week, there remain a few avenues to make a buck with a savvy bet. The UFC Vegas 107 edition of Prime Picks sifts through the duds to come up with four options of varied intrigue, culminating with a one-two punch to profit on the main attraction.

Erin Blanchfield Wins in Over 2.5 Rounds (-200)

The loss against Manon Fiorot and the close encounter with Rose Namajunas do not directly indicate that Blanchfield will be in grave danger when facing Maycee Barber. The ways she struggled in those two matches will not likely come to a head, unless she runs low on steam as the championship rounds are reached. In many ways, the two flyweight contenders are fairly evenly matched. Both prefer to take the fight to the mat, with a penchant for aggressive top-side grappling approaches. Neither fares particularly well in a straight kickboxing match, although one will not likely make the other pay in a noteworthy way as they trade hands. If neither woman dominates in one aspect out of nowhere—the ever-present “there are levels to this” statement—it appears on paper that Blanchfield is the one who can gain the upper hand as the match progresses.

A major gap in the coverage for “The Future” is that she has yet to engage in a match that lasted longer than 15 minutes, while the last two encounters for Blanchfield went 25 hard minutes. This will almost certainly play a factor, as neither woman has ever been finished; and unless something happens in the first round, this has the makings of one that goes long. Of note, Blanchfield conclusively won the final frame against “Thug Rose,” achieving the takedown she had sought for so long and taking advantage of it by blasting the former strawweight queen with ground-and-pound. This is where both women want to get, so a stalemate could ensue if no one gets the upper hand. It could transform into a low-power kickboxing affair, and if that happens, “Cold Blooded” has proven to be both more active on the feet and tougher to hit. If Blanchfield gets it done, it will likely be by either late stoppage or a decision, so coupling the over along with her prevailing allows this line to be a palatable -200.

Mateusz Gamrot (-155)

The UFC gave the former two-division KSW beltholder a stylistic layup in his return to the Octagon against Ludovit Klein. Gamrot is a wrestler through and through, and those skills are precisely the type that can completely shut down the high-flying Slovakian contender. If one gets close to “Mr. Highlight,” he will not be able to unleash his more dangerous attacks that tend to take him airborne. Additionally, the durable chin and exceptional recoverability that the Polish fighter employs will allow him to take a few shots to get in nice and tight, where he can wrap his arms around Klein’s waist and take him for a ride.

For Klein to prevail, he will have to be at his sprawl-and-brawl best, both by scoring while Gamrot approaches him for level changes and by connecting on the way out. Keeping his back against the cage will be the worst thing he can do, but it is a tough ask, as Gamrot is a pressure fighter who wears foes out by sheer forward movement and an exhausting pace. There’s a reason why Gamrot is one takedown away from joining the Top 5 in that category for all lightweights to ever grace the Octagon—and doing so in his 11th UFC appearance. Gamrot is not immune to getting caught, but no one has been able to hammer the nail after wobbling him. If Klein pulls off the upset, it will likely be from his leg strikes, and “Gamer” knows that he must take them out of the equation at all costs.

Ramiz Brahimaj (+275)

The Fortis MMA product has demonstrated recently that he is no longer a one-trick pony, as he laid waste to Mickey Gall, not with a consciousness-depriving submission but with his fists. Capitalizing on Gall’s tall-man defense of leaning back to avoid blows instead of using head movement, Brahimaj knocked his block off and proved that he does have hands. When a submission specialist learns that he can knock someone out, he may fall in love with that power to his detriment. Overconfidence in landing that big right hand could spell issues in the future, and the bettors believe that Connecticut’s Billy Goff is going to be the one to take full advantage. It might not be quite that cut-and-dry.

Goff is of a similar mold to a fair number of New England-based competitors, termed “face-first, Boston-based strikers” in reference to the overreliance on their chin. Ready to take two on the jaw to give one mighty blow back, it has not always worked out for those athletes. Goff, who comes out of his corner like his hair is on fire, is going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at Brahimaj. It’s up to the New Yorker to decide his approach right out of the gate: swing back and let the chips fall where they may, or use Goff’s momentum against him to wrangle him to the mat. It should be noted that Brahimaj is a grappler and not a wrestler, meaning that his entries are not rock-solid and depend in part on the level of defense Goff has at his disposal. Still, Brahimaj could easily catch an overaggressive Goff with a clutch guillotine choke or trip out his legs and flatten him out with an arm-triangle. With respect to the Dexter MMA combatant, Goff should not be a favorite around -350 against anyone on the roster, Brahimaj included.

Macy Chiasson (-125)

Few have the horsepower to meet the physicality of Brazil’s Ketlen Vieira. With unremarkable striking or grappling stats on her ledger, she tends to do just enough to win fights. “Fenomeno” has not outstruck an opponent since her sophomore outing in 2017 against Ashlee Evans-Smith, with her power and occasional takedown mixed in to help her look better in the eyes of the judges. The clinch is where she excels, as she has the brute force to be able to hold women against the fence and frustrate them there. Enter Chiasson, a woman four inches taller and three inches longer in the arms. She will dwarf the not-small Vieira in the cage.

While Vieira would like to keep things vertical as she slowly breaks a foe down, Chiasson vastly prefers grounding the woman she is standing across the Octagon from before putting her through the wringer. Because of her size and how hard she swings, Chiasson can put up above-average power in her division, but it also means that she will have a fight before the fight: making weight. This is anything but guaranteed. In fact, it could possibly be the reason why someone would avoid betting on the Fortis MMA staple. Not knowing if she will reach the 136-pound cap is a daunting concern, one that can be alleviated if betting after the weigh-ins are complete.